Abstract
Since 1990, extravagant efforts and increases to government spending have been made towards the complete reformation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China into a modern military. Upon the election of President Xi Jinping, these efforts have been increased threefold resulting in an entirely new PLA. New equipment, new weapons, new missiles and new ground, air and sea vehicles have been developed domestically in the wake of China’s recent economic boom. Now sitting comfortably as the world’s second highest military spender, under the United States, China is thirty years into their fifty-year plan to return China to its super-power status. However, despite China’s continued assurance that their military expansion is entirely defensive and that they only have plans to defend what is theirs, recent events show the rising tensions between China and numerous other countries. As China’s military power continues to grow, other countries including the United States, India, Australia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and more, have gone on the defensive in response to Chinese intimidation in the South China Sea and other regions and, in some instances, flat out conflict with the PLA. Given recent events, China’s assurance of their solely defensive efforts must be brought into question as well as the global consequences of the PLA’s efforts toward the domination and control of the South China Sea and open conflict with China could cause.
The Reorganization and Modern Weaponization of China’s Military
After learning from the Chinese Civil War (1927-1949), witnessing the events of the Gulf War and the Taiwan Strait Crisis, Chinese leaders acknowledged their inability to wage a modern war in the 1990’s. Which marked a turning point for the densely populated country leading to the beginning of a massive military overhaul projected to be accomplished in fifty years. Then, in 2012, upon President Xi Jinping rise to China’s chief political power, fueled by his dream of restoring China’s status as a great-power in the world, China saw another boost to its military reform. “Among his most significant reforms are new joint theater commands, deep personnel cuts, and improvements to military-civilian collaboration.” (“China’s Modernizing Military,” 2020) Under Xi’s leadership China is now estimated to be spending $239 billion annually on its Navy alone. “The PLA enjoyed a soaring budget as China’s economy boomed over the past few decades.” (“China’s Modernizing Military, 2020) The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is aiming to become the dominating force of Asia-Pacific regions, and to dominate any international disputes in the South China Sea. “U.S. President Trump’s administration believes China is a great-power rival, though the PLA still has a ways to go before it can challenge the U.S., experts say.” (“China’s Modernizing Military,” 2020) They have also recently taken the lead in artificial intelligence and, more notably, anti-ship missiles.
Amidst China’s extreme efforts to modernize its military, and despite its impressive execution and recent developments, there remains many doubts regarding its ability to wield such impressive power. “February 1979 was the last time the PLA was engaged in a large scale war.” (Brimelow, 2020) China’s war in 1979 resulted in extremely high casualties against the Vietnamese. “Despite the meteoric rise in capability, China still lacks one thing the U.S. and many of its NATO allies have: experience.” (Brimelow, 2020) While China continues to invest a great deal into its military for more sophisticated and powerful equipment, weapons and more expansive training, they have yet to put it all to use in large-scale combat. They still lack the experience of U.S. military forces as well as other NATO countries.
Reorganization
This impressive reorganization began with President Xi Jinping shaving down his nations military from six million troops to two and a half million so that resources previously meant to maintain such a large, vastly untrained and ineffectively armed army, could be reallocated to produce a higher quality military. Then came the restructuring of China’s eleven military regions into five regional commands. This allowed for a much easier management of leadership and provided more leadership opportunities and responsibilities to lower ranking soldiers.
Next came newly developed aircraft and armor consisting of two attack helicopters (Z-19 and Z-10) that have both anti-air, anti-tank and recon capabilities, fighter bomber aircraft including the J-10 (which competes with the F-16), J-11, JH-7, and J-16, as well as a stealth fighter, the J-20. “Both the J-10 and J-20 were allegedly built with stolen U.S. designs.” (Brimelow, 2020) Armed group forces have also received new armored tanks, infantry fighting vehicles of the old soviet style as well as new domestically designed and built infantry weapons.
One of the most significant developments of China’s military modernization has been their rapidly growing Navy, the People’s Liberation Army – Navy (PLAN). “In 1979, the PLAN’s fleet was considered a ‘green-water’ force mostly confined to coastal areas.” (Brimelow, 2020) Most ships then were greatly inferior. Now PLAN is one of the largest Navies in the world, consisting of new, modern missile-carrying warships, and nuclear-powered attack subs capable of hitting targets five thousand five hundred miles away with nuclear warheads. “China never signed the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty (INF) and was never subject to its limits, so it had been free to invest heavily in ballistic missiles.” (Brimelow, 2020) Though China still maintains a no-first-use nuclear policy, the idea of such a capability to any country is an intimidating threat, purposefully or not.
Modern Weaponization
The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), China’s missile force, is a recently formed branch of its military specializing in the development and employment of the country’s missiles. Particular recently developed missiles have the U.S. worried. Specifically, the DF-41 which boasts being able to reach continental U.S. in just 30 minutes, as well as the DF-17 and DF-100 which are newly developed hypersonic missiles. The DF-100, a hypersonic, regional-level, anti-ship missile, capable of long ranged attacks, is regarded as the top missile threat. DF stands for Dong Feng which means “East Wind,” and hypersonic means that the missile is capable of traveling at speeds five times faster than the speed of sound. “A China times article on the September 25th launch described it as being for attacking large enemy surface ships and high-value targets such as communications and command hubs.” (Roblin, 2020) The DF-100 is harder to intercept because of its speed and trajectory. Also, it possesses jammers inside it to combat enemy sensors and has a hardened shell to protect against possible countermeasures.
A vast majority of China’s new military equipment, weapons, and missiles are now being built domestically as a result of President Xi Jinping’s push for what he calls military-civilian fushion. “China is estimated to be the world’s second-largest arms producer, trailing the U.S. and ahead of Russia, according to the 2020 report by SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute).” (“China’s Modernizing Military,” 2020) Although, there remain some disheartening issues within the PLA even with it’s incredible reorganization.
China has been accused of copying jet engine designs from other countries, including the U.S. and Russia, without permission. Additionally, the PLA still faces significant corruption in its ranks despite President Xi Jinping’s efforts against it. In his first six years in office Xi personally oversaw the punishment of 13,000 corrupt PLA officers. So, while their recent developments are impressive, China has yet to flush out all of the PLA’s kinks.
China’s Terrorization of Neighboring Countries
China’s military renovations have also set neighboring countries on edge. In 2019, Japan identified China as their greatest national security threat. Both the Philippines and South Korea have shifted toward China in an effort to basically get on their good side just in case China decides to start gaining some of that large-scale war experience. “Philippine President Rodrigo Duerte has visited China multiple times, signed agreements to strengthen cooperation, and courted Chinese investors.” (“China’s Modernizing Military,” 2020) While the U.S. is their closest defensive power, it is a possibility that these countries could shift toward China if American power over the South China Sea becomes doubtful.
Territorial Disputes
China’s military expansion has led to confrontations and even fights with neighboring countries. “Chinese fighter jets and at least one bomber buzzed Taiwan’s territorial airspace almost daily.” (Myers, 2020) On June15th, Chinese and Indian forces clashed in the Himalayas. “It was the bloodiest clash on that frontier since 1967.” (Myers, 2020) This so called “clash” occurred in the Galwan Valley of the Hymalayas and while there is not much information as to what escalated the event, there is some speculation that due to its extremely new equipment and lack of real world experience with said equipment, a negligent discharge on China’s side is likely. However, it seems as though the clash was a minor success for the Chinese. “The worst border clash between India and China in more than 40 years left 20 Indian soldiers dead and dozens believed captured, India officials said on Tuesday, raising tensions between nuclear-armed rivals who have increasingly been flexing their diplomatic and military muscle.” (Gettleman, et al., 2020) Luckily neither country wants further confrontation, particularly India who, despite the Chinese death toll being withheld, seem to have suffered more losses than China during the altercation.
The PLA have also laid claim to the South China Sea, leading to further menacing of its neighbors such as the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat in April of this year. “Earlier this month, Vietnam lodged an official protest with Beijing after the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat it said had been rammed by a China Coast Guard vessel near the Paracel Islands.” (Greene, 2020) As well as the stalking of a civilian oil vessel in Malaysian waters, which prompted the U.S. and Australia to send in warships for the purposes of monitoring the situation in the area. PLAN also pointed targeting radars at Philippine vessels resulting in formal diplomatic complaints. China’s flexing of its military and claims of ownership have been regarded by the United States and other NATO countries as illegal. The nature of their behavior in the region has yet to be decided.
The South China Sea
In April of 2020, Australian naval ships arrived in the South China Sea to conduct drills with the US Navy in the hopes of strengthening the stability and security of the region. “Defense experts believe Australia’s participation in the military drills alongside the US would have been planned months in advance. But the show of force comes at a significant time, as other nations express growing concerns with China’s expansion in the region.” (Greene, 2020) These maneuvers were coincidentally announced just days after China established military infrastructures on islands in the disputed waters. It still remains unclear as to whether or not the interactions between the Royal Asutralian Navy (RAN) and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) were in fact military confrontations and shows of force, or simply a planned routine execution of combined naval training.
Despite China being Australia’s largest economic partner, it continues to support the US in its declaration that Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are illegal, which, experts say will undoubtedly prompt a significant response from China. “According to one senior official the Chinese were ‘exceedingly polite’ as they reminded the Australians they were coming close to the Spratly Islands which have been heavily fortified by China in recent times.” (Greene, 2020) Will China react assertively and in a robust military manner, or will they continue to be “exceedingly polite?” Thus far, communications between the two countries while in the South China Sea have been described as highly professional.
Conclusion
Even amidst the coronavirus outbreak, the PLA has not slowed its rapid territorial expansion in the South China Sea. Establishing military infrastructures and command nods along disputed islands within the region as well as the development of new and impressive weapons have continued and show no sign of slowing down. Which is likely a large part of the reason why the United States continues to maintain a presence within the South China Sea as a means to at least monitor China’s territorial expansion. However, “there are growing concerns that the increasing presence of the US Navy in the region is heightening tensions that could spark actual conflict.” (Greene, 2020) While an armed contention with the PLA could finally answer the question of whether or not China can actually fight in a modern war, the effects of such a confrontation would prove highly detrimental to relations between both the United States and China, as well as the economic wellbeing of numerous countries within the region who are allied with the U.S. but still rely heavily on China as an economic partner.
References
Brimelow, B. (2020, June 13). China’s military has become one of the world’s most powerful, but the US still has one big advantage. Retrieved August 06, 2020, from https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-military-is-improving-but-us-has-more-combat-experience-2020-7
China’s Modernizing Military. (n.d.) Retrieved August 06, 2020, from https://www.cfr.org/backgorunder/chinas-modernizing-military
Gettleman, J., Kumar, H., & Yasir, S. (2020, June 16). Worst Clash in Decades on Disputed India-China Border Kills 20 Indian Troops. Retrieved August 07, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/asia/indian-china-border-clash.html
Greene, A. (2020, April 22). Australian ship joins US in show of force as South China Sea tensions re-emerge. Retrieved August 12, 2020 from https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/tensions-rise-in-south-china-sea-after-us-australia-exercises/12171806
Greene, A. (2020, July, 25). The ‘exceedingly polite’ Chinese military has a message for Australia. Retrieved August 12, 2020, from https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-26/china-has-control-south-china-sea-australia-confrontation/12491366
Myers, S. (2020, June 26). China’s Military Provokes Its Neighbors, but the Message Is For the United States. Retrieved August 07, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/international-home/china-military-india-taiwan.html
Robin, S. (2020, April 18). The DF-100 Is China’s Biggest Threat to the U.S. Navy. Retrieved August 06, 2020, from https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/df-100-chinas-biggest-threat-us-navy-145172